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Meth overdoses are skyrocketing. From the National Institute on Drug Abuse, here are the number of overdose deaths per year. This isn’t slowing down. More recent data (not plotted) indicates that that 2020 had 24,076 deaths, and things sped up even more during early 2021. While a lot of these deaths come in combination with opiates like Fentanyl, a lot don’t, too. We can put these numbers in context with some very rough arithmetic. Let’s compare to someone who takes amphetamines/Adderall for ADHD, typically prescribed 5-20 mg per dose. Meanwhile, a strong single dose of meth is 40-150 mg, on top of which people say that meth is around 2× as potent as amphetamines. So meth users take roughly 15× as much per dose as the typical Adderall user. Meth addicts often dose several times per day, due to the short half-life, meaning a total of 300-800 mg per day. That’s a lot, but let’s talk about overdoses.

I’m not sure how reliable these numbers are.

After following one of those links, turn off all table display options except for row %, then click the “Run Crosstab” button. Meth prices have come down. If supply is increasing, we would expect prices to come down. The DEA continued to track prices after 2017, but they noticed that lots of researchers found this data useful and therefore stopped publishing it because screw you. I’m not sure how reliable these numbers are. They vary a lot based on the quantity being bought and the location in the country. There are also random quotes scattered across the media: The Kansas Bureau of investigations (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) reports the price of a pound of meth dropping from around $15k in 2014 to around $4k in 2019, and slightly rebounding to $5k in 2020 during the pandemic. A public television station in California in 2019 quotes a law enforcement officer in Fresno as saying a pound of meth had dropped from $6k for a pound a few years before to only $1k per pound now.

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The top route uses benzaldehyde and nitroethane to produce nitrostyrene (NTS), which is then made into P2P. The bottom route uses ethyl phenylacetate (EtPA) to make phenylacetic acid (PAA), which is again made into P2P. Note that lead acetate (which has been raised as a concern) is only used in the PAA synthesis route. Synthesis methods for P2P meth have changed repeatedly. This paper by DEA scientists goes over the profiling of different types of P2P meth. Starting around 2009, people used EtPA to make PAA. Around 2014, there was a shift towards using the NTS synthesis. Around 2018, there was a shift back towards using PAA. It’s much messier than this implies: The transitions were gradual, and the DEA finds a fair number of “unknown” samples each year that they can’t classify. On top of these different methods to make P2P, there are different methods to convert P2P into meth, and these have probably changed over time as well.